Category Archives: AI

The New AI Economy

The convergence of technology leaps, social transformation, and genuine economic needs is catapulting AI (Artificial Intelligence) from its academic roots & decades of inertia to the forefront of business and industry. There has been a growing noise since last couple of years on how AI and its key subsets like Machine Learning and Deep Learning will affect all walks of life. Another phrase “Pervasive AI” is becoming part of our tech lexicon after the popularity of Amazon Echo and Google Home devices.

So what are the key factors pushing this renaissance of AI? We can quickly list them here:

  • Rise of Data Science from the basement to the boardroom of companies. Everyone saw the 3V’s of Big Data (volume, velocity, and variety). Data is called by many names – oxygen, the new oil, new gold, or the new currency.
  • Open source software such as Hadoop sparked this revolution in analytics using lots of unstructured data. The shift from retroactive to more predictive and prescriptive analytics is growing, for actionable business insights. Real-time BI is also taking a front seat.
  • Arrival of practical frameworks for handling big data revived AI (Machine Learning and Deep Learning) which fed happily on big data.
  • Existing CPU’s were not powerful for the fast processing needs of AI. Hence GPU (Graphical Processing Units) offered faster and more powerful chips. NVIDIA provided a positive force in this area. It’s ability to provide a full range of components (systems, servers, devices, software, and architecture) is making NVIDIA an essential player in the emerging AI economy. IBM’s neuromorphic computing project provides notable success in the area of perception, speech and image recognition.

Leading software vendors such as Google have numerous projects on AI ranging from speech and image recognition, language translation, and varieties of pattern matching. Facebook, Amazon, Uber, Netflix, and many others are racing to deploy AI into their products.

Paul Allen, co-founder of Microsoft is pumping $125M into his research lab Allen Institute of AI. The focus is to digitize common sense. Let me quote from today’s New York Times, “Today, machines can recognize nearby objects, identify spoken words, translate one language into another and mimic other human tasks with an accuracy that was not possible just a few years ago. These talents are readily apparent in the new wave of autonomous vehicles, warehouse robotics, smartphones and digital assistants. But these machines struggle with other basic tasks. Though Amazon’s Alexa does a good job of recognizing what you say, it cannot respond to anything more than basic commands and questions. When confronted with heavy traffic or unexpected situations, driverless cars just sit there”. Paul Allen added, “To make real progress in A.I., we have to overcome the big challenges in the area of common sense”.

Welcome to the new AI economy!


IBM’s Neuromorphic Computing Project

The Neuromorphic Computing Project at IBM is a pioneer in next-generation chip technology. The project has received ~$70 million in research funding from DARPA (under SyNAPSE Program), US Department of Defense, US Department of Energy, and Commercial Customers. The ground-breaking project is multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional, and multi-national and has a world-wide scientific impact. The resulting architecture, technology, and ecosystem breaks path with the prevailing von Neumann architecture and constitutes a foundation for energy-efficient, scalable neuromorphic systems. The head of this project is Dr. Dharmendra Modha, IBM Fellow and chief scientist for IBM’s brain-inspired computing project.

So why is the Von Neumann architecture inadequate for brain-inspired computing? The Von Neumann model goes back to 1946 where it dealt with 3 things – the CPU, memory and a bus. You move data to and from memory. The bus connects the memory & CPU via computation. It becomes the bottleneck, and also sequentializes computation. So if you have to flip a single bit, you have to read that bit from memory and write it back.

The new architecture is radically different. The IBM project takes inspiration from the structure, dynamics, and behavior of the brain to see if they can optimize time, speed, and energy of computation. Co-locate memory and computation and slowly intertwine communication, just like how the brain does, then you can minimize the energy of moving bits from memory to computation. You can get event-driven computation rather than clock-driven computation, and you can compute only when information changes.

The Von Neumann paradigm is, by definition, a sequence of instructions interspersed with occasional if-then-else statements. Compare that to a neural network, where a neuron can reach out to up to 10,000 neighbors. The TrueNorth (IBM’s new chip) can reach out to up to 256, and the reason for that disparity is because it is silicon and not organic technology. But there’s a very high fan-out, and high fan-out is difficult to implement in a sequential architecture. An AI system IBM developed last year for Lawrence Livermore National Lab had 16 TrueNorth chips tiled in a 4-by-4 array. The chips are designed to be tiled, so scalability is built in as a design principle rather than as an afterthought.

In summary, the design points of the IBM project are as follows:

  • The Von Neumann architecture won’t be able to provide the massively parallel, fault-tolerant, power-efficient systems that will be needed to create to embed intelligence into silicon. Instead, IBM had to rethink processor design.
  • You can’t throw out the baby with the bathwater: even if you rethink underlying hardware design, you need to implement sufficiently abstracted software libraries to reduce the pain of the software developer so that he can program your chip.
  • You can achieve power efficiency by changing the way you build software and hardware to become active only when an event occurs; rather than tying computation to a series of sequential operations, you make it into a massively parallel job that runs only when the underlying system changes.

AI is getting notable success in the area of perception such as speech and image recognition. In the field of reinforcement learning and deep learning, the human brain becomes the primary inspiration. Hence the IBM Neuromorphic chip design becomes a significant foundational technology.

AWS re:Invent 2017

In a few decades when the history of computing will be written, a major section will be devoted to cloud computing. The headline of the first section would read something like this – How did a dot-com era book-selling company became the father of cloud computing? While the giants like IBM, HP, and Microsoft were sleeping, Amazon started a new business eleven years ago in 2006 called AWS (Amazon Web Services). I still remember the afternoon when I had spent couple of hours with the CTO of Amazon (not Werner Vogel, his predecessor, a dutch gentleman) back in 2004 discussing the importance of SOA (Service Oriented Architecture). When I asked why was he interested, he mentioned how CEO Jeff Bezos has given a marching order to monetize the under-utilized infrastructure in their data centers. Thus AWS arrived in 2006 with S3 for storage and EC2 for computing.

Advance the clock by 11 years. At this week’s AWS Re-Invent event in Las Vegas it was amazing to listen to Andy Jassy, CEO of AWS who gave a 2.5 hour keynote on how far AWS has come. There were 43,000 people attending this event (in its 6th year) and another 60,000 were tuned in via the web. AWS has a revenue run rate of $18B with a 42% Year-to-Year growth. It’s profit is over 60% thus contributing significantly to Amazon’s bottom line. It has hundreds of thousands of customers starting from majority web startups to Fortune 500 enterprise players in all verticals. It has the strongest partner ecosystem. Garter group said AWS has a market share of 44.1% (39% last year), larger than all others combined. Customers like Goldman Sachs, Expedia, and National Football League were on stage showing how they fully switched to AWS for all their development and production.

Andy covered four major areas – computing, database, analytics, and machine learning with many new announcement of services. AWS already offers over 100 services. Here is a brief overview.

  • Computing – 3 major areas: Instances of EC2 including new GPU processor for AI, Containers (services such as Elastic Container Services and new ones like EKS – Elastic Kubernetes Services), and Serverless (Function as a Service with its Lambda services). The last one, Serverless is gaining fast traction in just last 12 months.
  • Database – AWS is starting to give real challenge to incumbents like Oracle, IBM and Microsoft. It has three offerings – AWS Aurora RDBMS for transaction processing, DynamoDB and Redshift. Andy announced Aurora Multi-Master for replicated read and writes across data centers and zones. He claims it is the first RDBMS with scale-out across multiple data centers and is lot cheaper than Oracle’s RAC solution. They also announced Aurora Serverless for on-demand, auto-scaling app dev. For No-SQL, AWS has DynamoDB (key-value store). They also have Amazon Elastic Cache for in-memory DB. Andy announced Dynamo DB Global Tables as a fully-managed, multi-master, multi-region DB for customers with global users (such as Expedia). Another new service called Amazon Neptune was announced for highly connected data (fully managed Graph database). They also have Redshift for data warehousing and analytics.
  • Analytics – AWS provides Data Lake service on S3 which enables API access to any data in its native form. They have many services like Athena, Glue, Kinesis to access the data lake. Two new services were announced – S3 Select (a new API to select and retrieve S3 data from within an object), Glacier Select (access less frequently used data in the archives).
  • Machine Learning – Amazon claims it has been using machine learning for 20 years in its e-commerce business to understand user’s preferences. A new service was announced called Amazon Sagemaker which brings storage, data movement, management of hosted notebook, and ML algorithms like 10 top commonly used ones (eg. Time Series Forecasting). It also accommodates other popular libraries like Tensorflow, Apache MxNet, and Caffe2. Once you pick an algorithm, training is much easier with Sagemaker. Then with one-click, the deployment happens. Their chief AI fellow Dr. Matt Wood demonstrated on stage how this is all done. They also announced AWS DeepLens, a video camera for developers with a computer vision model. This can detect facial recognition and image recognition for apps. New services announced besides the above two are – Amazon Kinesis Video streams (video ingestion), Amazon Transcribe (automatic speech recognition), Amazon Translate (between languages), and Amazon Comprehend (fully managed NLP – Natural Language Processing).

It was a very impressive and powerful presentation and shows how deeply committed and dedicated the AWS team is. Microsoft Azure cloud, Google’s computing cloud, IBM’s cloud and Oracle’s cloud all seem way behind in terms of AWS’s breadth and depth. It will be to customer’s benefit to have couple of AWS alternatives as we march along the cloud computing highway. Who wants a single-vendor lock-in?


Amazon+Whole Foods – How to read this?

Last Thursday (June 15, 2017), Amazon decided to acquire Whole Foods for a whopping $13.7B ($42 per share, a 27% premium to its closing price). On Friday, stock prices of Walmart, Target, and Costco took a hit downwards, while Amazon shares went up by more than 2%. So why did Amazon buy Whole Foods? Clearly Amazon sees groceries as an important long-term driver of growth in its retail segment. What is funny is that a web pioneer with no physical retail outlet decided to get back to the brick-and-mortar model. Amazon has also started physical bookstores at a few cities. We have come full circle.

Amazon grocery business has focussed on Amazon Fresh subscription service so far to deliver online food orders. Amazon will eventually use the stores to promote private-label products, integrate and grow its AI powered Echo speakers, boost prime membership and entice more customers into the fold. Hence this acquisition is the start of a long term strategy. Amazon is known for its non-linear thinking. Just see how it started a brand new business with AWS about 12 years back and now it is a $14B business with a 50%+ margin. It commands a powerful leadership position in the cloud computing business and competitors like Microsoft Azure or Google’s GCE are trying hard to catch up.

The interesting thing to ponder is how the top tech companies are spreading their tentacles. This was a front-page article in today’s WSJ. Apple, a computer company that became a phone company, is now working on self-driving cars, TV programming, and augmented reality. It is also pushing into payments territory challenging the banks. Google parent Alphabet built Android which now runs most PC devices. It ate the maps industry; it’s working on internet-beaming balloons, energy-harvesting kites, and self-driving technologies. Facebook is creating drones, VR hardware, original TV shows, and even telepathic brain computers. Of course Elon Musk brings his tech notions to any market he pleases – finance, autos, energy, and aerospace.

What is special about Amazon is that it is willing to work on everyday problems. According to the author of the WSJ article, this may be the smarter move in the long run. While Google and Facebook have yet to drive significant revenue outside their core, Amazon has managed to create business after business that is profitable, or at least not a drag on the bottom line. The article ends with cautionary note, “Imagine a future in which Amazon, which already employs north of 340,000 people worldwide, is America’s biggest employer. Imagine we are all spending money at what’s essentially the company store, and when we get home we’re streaming Amazon’s media….”

With few tech giants controlling so many businesses, are we comfortable to get all our goods and services from the members of an oligopoly?


The end of Cloud Computing?

A provocative title for sure when everyone thinks we just started the era of cloud computing. I recently listened to a talk by Peter Levine, general partner at Andreessen Horowitz on this topic which makes a ton of sense. The proliferation of intelligent devices and the rise of IoT (Internet of Things) lead us to a new world beyond what we see today in cloud computing (in terms of scale).

I have said many times that the onset of cloud computing was like back to the future of centralized computing. We had IBM mainframes, dominating the centralized computing era during the 1960s and 1970s. The introduction of PCs created the world of client-server computing (remember the wintel duopoly?) from 1980s till 2000. Then the popularity of the mobile devices started the cloud era in 2005, thus taking us back to centralized computing again. The text message I send you does not go from my device to your device directly, but gets to a server somewhere in the cloud first and then to your phone. The trillions of smart devices forecasted to appear as sensors in automobiles, home appliances, airplanes, drones, engines, and almost any thing you can imagine (like in your shoe) will drastically change the computing paradigm again. Each of these “edge intelligent devices” can not go back and forth to the cloud for every interaction. Rather they would want to process data at the edge to cut down latency. This brings us back to a new form of “distributed computing” model – kind of back to a vastly expanded version of the “PC era”.

Peter emphasized that the cloud will continue to exist, but its role will change from being the central hub to a “learning center” where curated data from the edge (only relevant data) resides in the cloud. The learning gets pushed back to the edge for getting better at its job. The edge of the cloud does three things – sense, infer, and act. The sense level handles massive amount of data like in a self-driving car (10GB per mile), thus making it like a “data center on wheels”. The sheer volume of data is too much to push back to the cloud. The infer piece is all machine learning and deep learning to detect patterns, improve accuracy and automation. Finally, the act phase is all about taking actions in real-time. Once again, the cloud plays the central role as a “learning center” and the custodian of important data for the enterprise.

Given the sheer volume of data created, peer-to-peer networks will be utilized to lessen load on core network and share data locally. The challenge is huge in terms of network management and security. Programming becomes more data-centric, meaning less code and more math. As the processing power of the edge devices increases, the cost will come down drastically. I like his last statement that the entire world becomes the domain of IT meaning we will have consumer-oriented applications with enterprise-scale manageability.

This is exciting and scary. But whoever could have imagined the internet in the 1980s or the smartphone during the 1990s, let alone self-driving cars?


Secret of Sundar Pichai’s success

I watched Sundar Pichai’s recent interaction with the students at I.I.T. (Indian Institute of Technology) Kharagpur, India, where he graduated back in 1993. Besides our common country of birth, I had never heard of Sundar until his rapid rise at Google a few years back. I have never met him or listened to him at conferences. So this was the first time, I had a chance to listen to his remarks and his answers to many questions from the audience of 3500 students at his alma mater earlier this week.

Growing up not far from I.I.T. Kharagpur, I was very aware of this institution. It was the first I.I.T. in India established during the 1950s. Other I.I.T’s like at Kanpur, Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai came later. These were the original 5 Indian Institute of Technologies. Lately many new ones have been added.

Sundar did his undergraduate studies in Metallurgy (study about metals). Then how did he switch from that into software? That was one of the questions from a student. He said that he loved Fortran language during his student days and that love for programming continued. The message he was giving was for everyone to pursue their own interest & passion. He mentioned that unlike in India, students at US universities sometimes do not decide their majors, way into their 3rd or 4th year of studies. Sundar’s passion was to build products that would impact a very large number of global users. During his interview at Google, he was asked what he thought of Gmail, which he had never seen nor used. Then the fourth interviewer actually showed it to him. Subsequently, he gave his opinion to the remaining 3 interviewers on what he thought was wrong with Gmail and how to improve it. He emphasized time and again the need to step out of the comfort zone and get an all rounded experience. Today’s students need not be afraid to take some risks and be willing to fail.

Besides technical leadership, Sundar possesses an amazing quality; egoless-ness, so rare to find in Silicon Valley executive community. He said that he truly believes in empowering his team and letting them execute with full trust. This is easier said that done, based on my experience at IBM and Oracle. Large organizations suffer from ego-driven leadership causing great amount of friction and anguish. Sunder’s rise at Google was due to his amazing ability to get teams to work very effectively. From Search, he went to manage Chrome, then he was given Android. His ability to work thru the complexities of products, fiefdoms, and internal rivalries was so evident that he was elevated to the CEO position so quickly. Humility is his hallmark combined with clarity of vision and efficient execution.

He made an interesting comment about the vision at Google. Larry Page said that the moonshot projects are worthwhile because the bar is so high (no competition). Even if you fail, you are still ahead with your knowledge and experience.

It was fun listening to Sundar’s simple and honest answers & remarks.


The new Microsoft

Clearly Satya Nadella has made a huge difference at Microsoft since taking office in 2014. The stock in 2016 hit an all time high since 1999. So investors are happy. Here are the key changes he has made since taking the role as CEO:

  • Skipped Windows 9 and went straight from Windows 8 to Windows 10, a great release. However revenues from Window is declining with the reduction of PC sales.
  • Released Microsoft Office for iPad. Also releasing the Outlook product on iPhone & Android.
  • Embraced Linux by joining the Linux Foundation, previously anathema to Microsoft’s window-centric culture.
  • Spent $2.5B to buy Mojang, the studio behind hit game Minecraft.
  • Introduced Microsoft’s first laptop, The Surface Book.
  • Revealed Microsoft HoloLens, the super-futuristic holographic goggles.
  • Created the new partner program to provide Microsoft products on non-Windows platforms. Hired ex-Qualcomm exec Peggy Johnson to head the bus-dev group.
  • Enhanced company morale and employee excitement.
  • The biggest gamble was the purchase of Linked-In last June for a whopping $26.2B.

It’s important to understand the significance of the Linked-In purchase. Adam Rifkin (I worked with him twelve years back at KnowNow, a smart guy) recently wrote an article on this topic. I like his comment that in a world of machine learning, uniquely valuable data is the new network effect. The right kind of data is now the force multiplier that can catapult organizations past any competitors who lack equivalent data. So data is the new barrier to entry. Adam also makes a statement that the most valuable data is perishable and not static. Software is eating the world and AI is eating software meaning AI is eating data and popping out software.

Now let’s map what this means to the Linked-In purchase by Microsoft which sees the network effects of Linked-In’s data. What Google gets from search, Facebook gets from likes, and Amazon gets from shopping carts, Microsoft will get such insights from Linked-In’s data for its CRM services. Adam makes a point that the global CRM market in 2015 was worth $26.3B – almost exactly what Microsoft paid. It is the fastest growing area of enterprise software. Hence Marc Benioff of SalesForce was not very happy with this acquisition.

The new Microsoft is ready to fight the enterprise software battle with incumbents like SalesForce, Oracle, SAP and Workday.