I was listening to Roger McNamee’s predictions of technology investment trends and came across two new terms – Hypernet and Hyperweb. The first term is where the Internet is overlaid with smartphones. He says that smartphones are now 50% of the web devices and growing. The second term refers to the software infrastructure for the Hypernet. The current infrastructure of mostly “index search” (read Google) is not going to work for the Hypernet. We need HTML5. Here are his ten hypotheses for tech investing.
1. Next Web Architecture = Hypernet + Hyperweb
2. The decline and fall of Windows unlocks revenue. Software development on Windows is declining. The new focus is the Web, Apple OS, and open source. In 2011, Windows devices will be less that 50% of the Internet, down from 95% four years ago.
3. Index search is peaking. Google search on mobile and tablets is much lower than on PC and Android does not fix that. New search is content-focused, such as Twitter (real time search), Wikipedia (facts), Linked-In (business people), or Facebook (social, taste,..).
4. Apple’s model threatens the Web. Web is more flexible, but Roger calls it Digital Detroit and one gets mugged easily. Apple’s iOS App model simplifies access to information on the Internet. HTML5 can be a threat to Apple when every content-provider starts using it.
5. HTML5 is game changer for publishers. Developers can embed audio and video easily replacing Adobe’s Flash. It will be disruptive. Content producers will redesign their sites to reduce power of Google and ad networks.
6. Tablets are hugely disruptive. iPad has replaced DVD as the most actively adapted tech product ever. So far, Apple dominates this market. The number 2 (Kindle Fire?) is yet to emerge.
7. First wave of “Social Web” is over. Facebook has won the platform war as the new Windows. But going forward, social will be a feature of every product.
8. Smartphones in the US = Apple + 7 Dwarfs. Android has more units but Apple gets almost all profits. Also Android has some serious security issues.
9. Wireless Infrastructure is competitive threat to the US. US has the least capable wireless infrastructure in the developed world. This will impact productivity and competitiveness in a big way.
10. Integration of TV and Internet could be disruptive. The convergence of Web and Television has the potential to disrupt cable and satellite, but it may not happen.
These are interesting and thoughtful hypotheses and like any predictions they are unknown in terms of velocity (when would it all happen), but certainly we see several of these at play even now.